This is the second post in a series cataloguing predictions about the major AI labs through the end of 2028. The first post covered Anthropic; subsequent posts will cover Google DeepMind, Meta, and the Chinese open-weight frontier on the same template. Each lab gets a structured ledger to come back to and check against what actually happened.

Where OpenAI stands as of mid-May 2026, for context:

  • Annualized revenue is roughly $25B, growing at about $2B/month. The historical trajectory: ~$2B in 2023, ~$6B in 2024, ~$20B at end of 2025, ~$25B by February 2026.
  • Anthropic surpassed OpenAI on ARR in April 2026 (~$30B vs. OpenAI’s ~$25B). This is the first time OpenAI has trailed a competitor on revenue since ChatGPT launched.
  • Closed a $122B funding round at an $852B post-money valuation in March 2026 (anchored by Amazon $50B, Nvidia $30B, SoftBank $30B, with continued Microsoft participation).
  • ChatGPT has ~900M weekly active users, 9M+ paying business users, 7M+ enterprise seats, and is deployed at 92% of the Fortune 500.
  • Enterprise revenue is 40%+ of mix, on track to reach parity with consumer by year-end 2026.
  • Microsoft partnership was restructured on April 27, 2026: exclusive Azure license ended, OpenAI can now serve on any cloud, revenue-share payments capped and unidirectional (OpenAI → Microsoft only, through 2030).
  • Corporate structure: OpenAI Group PBC. OpenAI Foundation holds 26%, Microsoft 27%, employees + investors 47%.
  • Stargate compute program: ~7GW of capacity planned across six US sites plus the UAE; over $400B committed over three years.
  • Model lineup: GPT-5, GPT-5.4, GPT-5.5 (April 2026), GPT-5.5 Instant (May 2026), o3, o4-mini. GPT-5.6 began internal testing April 30. GPT-6 has not shipped — what was code-named “Spud” was released as GPT-5.5.
  • DoD relationship: $200M contract with the Department of War signed Feb 27, 2026; OpenAI is one of eight firms cleared to deploy on classified networks.
  • Hardware: Jony Ive’s io device delayed from 2026 to early 2027; expected as a screenless, contextually-aware device; 40-50M unit year-one target with Foxconn.
  • Sora video product: discontinued April 26, 2026; full API shutdown scheduled for September 24, 2026.
  • Recent acquisitions (2026): Torch (healthcare, ~$60M), Astral (Python tooling), Hiro Finance, Tomoro (AI consulting), Neptune.
  • $4B enterprise AI deployment unit launched May 11, 2026, anchored by the Tomoro acquisition.
  • Sam Altman testified in the Musk lawsuit on May 12, 2026; board bylaws now require a 2/3 supermajority of non-employee directors to fire the CEO. Fidji Simo (head of AGI deployment) is on medical leave; Brad Lightcap moved to lead special projects.

The predictions below are anchored on that baseline. Each has a target time window and a confidence level reflecting how willing I am to be wrong publicly about it.

2026 (Balance of Year)

Models

  • GPT-5.6 ships (May–Jun 2026, high)
  • GPT-5.7 ships, primarily as an agent-and-tool-use upgrade (Sep 2026, medium)
  • GPT-6 announcement, with limited release to ChatGPT Pro and API enterprise tiers (Nov–Dec 2026, medium)
  • o5 reasoning model family ships, replacing the o3/o4 line (Q3 2026, medium)
  • Voice mode upgrade with low-latency conversational dialogue across all languages (Q3 2026, high)
  • Multimodal video understanding (input only, not generation) becomes default in GPT-6 (Q4 2026, low)

Business & Finance

  • $30B+ annualized revenue run-rate by mid-year (Jul 2026, high)
  • Anthropic and OpenAI cross again at year-end as OpenAI consumer growth outpaces enterprise (Dec 2026, low)
  • S-1 filed; CFO Friar pushes IPO timing decision to Q1 2027 (Q3 2026, medium)
  • IPO does not close in Q4 2026 — slips to 2027 due to Musk litigation overhang and market conditions (Dec 2026, medium)
  • Year-end ARR reaches $40–50B (Dec 2026, medium)
  • Annual revenue for 2026 (cumulative) lands around $25–30B (Dec 2026, high)

Verticals

  • OpenAI for Finance launches with named banking partners (Q3 2026, medium)
  • OpenAI for Government launches, anchored by DoD agreement and a handful of cabinet-level pilot deployments (Q3 2026, high)
  • OpenAI for Education launches as a productized offering, formalizing Study Mode (Q4 2026, medium)
  • 5+ productized verticals exist by year-end (Dec 2026, medium)

Hardware

  • Jony Ive’s io device misses its early-2027 target — first public ship slips to mid-2027 (2027, medium)
  • Manufacturing scale-up announcement with Foxconn at a named US factory site (Q4 2026, medium)
  • A second hardware product line (likely earbuds or a wearable) is announced as a complement (Q4 2026, low)

Consumer

  • ChatGPT crosses 1.2B weekly active users (end of 2026, high)
  • ChatGPT Atlas browser crosses 50M daily active users; Chrome market-share decline becomes a measurable story (end of 2026, medium)
  • A consumer subscription tier between Plus ($20) and Pro ($200) launches, positioned at $50–60/month (Q3 2026, medium)
  • 15M+ paying business users (up from 9M in February) (end of 2026, high)

Codex / Developer

  • Codex weekly active users cross 5M (Q3 2026, high)
  • Codex Security expanded into a full DevSecOps product line (Q4 2026, medium)
  • API token volume passes 30B tokens/minute (end of 2026, medium)

Infrastructure

  • Stargate capacity passes 10GW of committed plans (end of 2026, high)
  • Abilene flagship reaches 1GW operational (Q3 2026, high)
  • UAE Stargate opens (Q4 2026, high)
  • Two additional sovereign-compute deals close (likely India, Japan, or Saudi Arabia) (end of 2026, medium)
  • Custom OpenAI silicon (with Broadcom) reaches limited internal deployment (Q4 2026, low)

Geopolitics & Governance

  • A second-tier Pentagon contract closes, valued $500M+ (Q4 2026, medium)
  • The Musk lawsuit reaches initial judgment; Altman remains CEO (Q4 2026, medium)
  • Fidji Simo returns from medical leave; some leadership reshuffling persists (Q3 2026, low)
  • A senior White House liaison hire is announced (2026, medium)

Industry

  • $1B+ acquisition closes in healthcare AI or robotics adjacency (2026, medium)
  • The $4B enterprise deployment unit reaches $500M+ ARR run-rate (end of 2026, medium)
  • A second AI consulting firm acquisition in the $200–500M range (2026, medium)

Discontinuations

  • A second consumer product (alongside Sora) is shed before year-end as compute prioritization tightens (2026, low)

2027

Models

  • GPT-6 family ships in full (consumer, API, enterprise tiers) (Q1 2027, high)
  • GPT-7 announcement (Q4 2027, medium)
  • A reasoning model with persistent memory and 50M+ token context becomes default (2027, medium)
  • A small-model line (sub-GPT-5.5 scale) ships with strong on-device capability targeting the Jony Ive hardware (H1 2027, medium)
  • Video generation returns as an API offering, on a different cost/quality curve than Sora 2 (H2 2027, low)

Business & Finance

  • IPO closes — $1–1.4T valuation, $60B+ raised, Goldman/JPM/Morgan Stanley as joint book-runners (Q2 2027, medium)
  • Year-end ARR reaches $150–200B (Dec 2027, medium)
  • Market cap reaches $1.8–2.5T by end of 2027 (end of 2027, medium)
  • First post-IPO earnings call sets a new precedent for AI company financial disclosure (Q3 2027, high)

Verticals

  • 8+ productized verticals exist by year-end (2027, medium)
  • ChatGPT for Healthcare reaches >$5B ARR (2027, medium)
  • ChatGPT for Finance reaches >$3B ARR (2027, medium)
  • An OpenAI Solutions Partner ecosystem emerges (system integrators, vertical specialists) and grows into a $10B+ sub-economy (end of 2027, low)

Hardware

  • The Jony Ive io device ships to consumers — 10M+ units in first six months (H2 2027, medium)
  • A second hardware product (earbuds, wearable, or speaker) ships (end of 2027, low)
  • Total hardware revenue contribution reaches $5–10B annualized (end of 2027, low)

Workforce

  • Junior/mid software engineering employment contracts 30–40% from 2024 peak (mirroring the broader industry pattern) (2027, high)
  • Tier-1/2 support roles at companies using OpenAI products contract 50–60% (2027, high)
  • BLS publishes first major data series on AI-driven employment shifts (H2 2027, medium)
  • OpenAI launches a $2–3B retraining initiative tied to enterprise deployments (2027, medium)

Consumer

  • ChatGPT crosses 2B weekly active users (end of 2027, medium)
  • ChatGPT Atlas becomes the second-most-used browser globally (end of 2027, low)

Infrastructure

  • Stargate operational capacity passes 5GW (vs planned) (end of 2027, medium)
  • OpenAI custom silicon enters production deployment for inference workloads (H2 2027, medium)
  • First Anthropic/OpenAI compute-sharing arrangement during peak demand events (2027, low)

Geopolitics & Governance

  • Musk lawsuit reaches final resolution — no removal, but with reforms imposed on board composition (H1 2027, medium)
  • A “two-vendor” Pentagon AI doctrine emerges (OpenAI + one other) (2027, medium)
  • Sam Altman remains CEO but a new President is named to manage day-to-day operations (2027, medium)
  • An OpenAI EU subsidiary structure is announced to address regulatory framework (2027, medium)

Industry

  • Major AI-caused incident in financial markets or critical infrastructure — OpenAI implicated but not solely responsible (2027, medium)
  • The OpenAI brand becomes embedded in Microsoft Office at the level Google embeds in Workspace (2027, high)

2028

Models

  • GPT-7 family ships (H1 2028, medium)
  • GPT-8 announcement (end of 2028, low)
  • Long-horizon agent capability (multi-week autonomous task completion) becomes a deployed product feature (H2 2028, low)
  • Open-weight competitive frontier closes to within 6–12 months of OpenAI’s proprietary frontier (2028, medium)

Business & Finance

  • Year-end ARR reaches $400–600B (Dec 2028, low)
  • Market cap reaches $3–5T (end of 2028, low)
  • OpenAI is no longer the most valuable private-then-public AI company — Anthropic has overtaken on market cap by mid-2028 (2028, medium)
  • 15+ productized verticals exist (2028, medium)

Hardware

  • The io device line crosses 100M units total shipped (end of 2028, low)
  • A third hardware category ships (AR glasses or successor form factor) (end of 2028, low)

Workforce

  • Junior/mid software engineering employment contracts 50–60% from 2024 peak (2028, medium)
  • A unified Western framework for AI-driven workforce displacement compensation exists (2028, low)

Consumer

  • ChatGPT crosses 3B weekly active users (roughly 35% of internet-connected adults) (end of 2028, low)
  • The Atlas browser becomes the default browser for new device sales in the US (end of 2028, low)

Infrastructure

  • Stargate operational capacity passes 15GW (end of 2028, medium)
  • OpenAI custom silicon handles >50% of inference workload (end of 2028, medium)
  • A formal civilian-DoD compute reserve agreement exists (2028, low)

Geopolitics & Governance

  • A unified Western AI governance framework comes into existence (2028, low)
  • Sam Altman steps back from CEO role; Brad Lightcap or external hire takes over (end of 2028, medium)
  • OpenAI is recognized as a quasi-sovereign actor in trade agreements (2028, low)

Science

  • An OpenAI-trained model contributes meaningfully to a major scientific discovery (medical, materials, or physics) (2028, low)

What Would Break the Trajectory

These predictions hold only if the next two and a half years don’t contain a discontinuity. Ranked by probability:

  1. A serious safety incident with OpenAI technology — most likely candidates are a financial-system event or a misused agent.
  2. The Musk lawsuit produces a worse outcome than expected (forced restructuring, Altman removal, or major equity-share changes).
  3. A federal regulatory hammer — most likely from the SEC if pre-IPO disclosures prove problematic, or from a unified post-incident AI Act.
  4. A capability plateau — GPT-6 or GPT-7 fails to deliver the step-change improvements that the cadence implicitly promises.
  5. A compute supply collapse — Taiwan/TSMC, US energy infrastructure, or Stargate financing.
  6. The Microsoft separation goes worse than orchestrated — a downstream contract dispute that costs OpenAI a meaningful customer or distribution channel.
  7. US/China conflict at sufficient intensity to disrupt Pacific operations.
  8. Internal stress — board conflict, additional executive departures, or governance crisis.

The honest sentence: absent a discontinuity, OpenAI continues to be one of the two or three most consequential companies on earth. The interesting question is no longer “is OpenAI big enough to matter” — it’s “how does the OpenAI/Anthropic competition reshape both companies.”

What’s Different About OpenAI

Three observations that distinguish OpenAI’s trajectory from Anthropic’s, and which I think the rest of this series will return to:

  1. OpenAI is no longer the revenue leader. Anthropic passed it in April 2026, with substantially better unit economics (4x less spend per training run, by some estimates). This is the first time OpenAI has been second on revenue in any meaningful way since ChatGPT launched, and the company’s strategy now appears to be partially defined by competition with a smaller, more efficient rival rather than by its own pure growth curve.

  2. OpenAI has a hardware play in a way Anthropic does not. The Jony Ive device is, on inspection, a multi-billion-dollar bet that the form factor of consumer AI will be a dedicated piece of hardware rather than an app on a phone. If it works, OpenAI becomes a hardware company at a scale that no AI lab has previously attempted. If it doesn’t, the bet is one of the most expensive single product failures in the technology industry’s history.

  3. OpenAI’s governance is contested in a way Anthropic’s is not. The Musk lawsuit, the Microsoft restructuring, the board composition changes, the PBC transition — all of these are still in active legal and structural motion. The corporate form is not settled. This makes OpenAI’s trajectory inherently more sensitive to political and legal outcomes than Anthropic’s, and the predictions above are more dependent on those outcomes than I am entirely comfortable with.

What’s Next

The next post in this series will cover Google DeepMind — the Gemini family, the TPU vertical integration, the Workspace/Search distribution channel, and the AlphaFold/AlphaProof scientific arc. After that: Meta’s open-weight effort, and the Chinese frontier (DeepSeek, Zhipu, Moonshot, Qwen, and the SOE consolidation question).

Sources for the baseline data in this post: Anthropic just passed OpenAI in revenue (SaaStr), OpenAI raises $122 billion (OpenAI), OpenAI valued at $852B (Bloomberg), ChatGPT reaches 900M weekly active users (TechCrunch), Stargate advances with Oracle partnership (OpenAI), Five new Stargate sites (OpenAI), GPT-5.5 introduction (OpenAI), The next phase of the Microsoft OpenAI partnership (OpenAI), Our agreement with the Department of War (OpenAI), OpenAI aims to debut first device in 2026 (Axios), OpenAI IPO targets late 2026 (crypto.news), Introducing ChatGPT Atlas (OpenAI), OpenAI launches $4B enterprise AI unit (Tech Startups), OpenAI for Healthcare (Fortune), Altman takes stand in Musk lawsuit (CNN Business).